Bureaucrats, checkuser, Administrators
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'''Probability''' in mahjong is a concept that can be applied to many different situations. Because unlike chess, go or shogi, mahjong is an incomplete-information game. Players are required to predict outcomes and chances of reaching [[tenpai]], improving their [[Shanten|hand state]] (lowering tenpai or raising [[uke-ire]] (the useful tile count)), and completing their hand. At the same time, players try to project and [[Defense|guess opponent waiting tiles]]. Naturally, some of these are difficult concepts to describe with mathematical models, due to various [[Situational mahjong|game situations]]. | |||
'''Probability''' in mahjong is a concept that can be applied to many different situations. Because unlike chess, go or shogi, | |||
== Basic concepts and variables == | == Basic concepts and variables == | ||
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=== Chance of winning (raw chance, at tenpai stage) === | === Chance of winning (raw chance, at tenpai stage) === | ||
W = 1 - (notS * notR); note that raw chance will give numbers whose total can easily exceed a total probability of 1. This is to be expected. | W = 1 - (notS * notR); note that raw chance will give numbers whose 4-player total can easily exceed a total probability of 1. This is to be expected. | ||
=== Chance of not having a win declared in one full turn === | === Chance of not having a win declared in one full turn === |